| Candidate territory | Areas | Typical opportunity score | Accessible housing score | Housing retained | Areas needing geographic review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapel Hill | 4 | 67.2 | 4,667 | 87.4% | 2 |
| Alta Vista / Elmvale | 5 | 60.8 | 5,617 | 92.6% | 2 |
| Beacon Hill / Rothwell | 4 | 55.4 | 3,867 | 92.8% | 1 |
| Old Ottawa corridor | 3 | 53.8 | 2,704 | 85.5% | 1 |
| Pineview / Riverview | 4 | 53.3 | 3,765 | 94.9% | 3 |
| Orleans / Queenswood | 5 | 52.3 | 4,813 | 77.3% | 2 |
| Portobello / Fallingbrook | 6 | 47.2 | 4,793 | 66.4% | 3 |
Where Should We Advertise First?
Ottawa residential hardscaping | Management decision brief
October 10, 2026
MARKET OPPORTUNITY ASSESSMENT · MANAGEMENT DECISION BRIEF
Where should we advertise first?
A practical recommendation for a new and small Ottawa residential landscaping business.
RECOMMENDATION
Start with a limited advertising test in Alta Vista / Elmvale.
Keep Chapel Hill as the strongest alternative if management prefers to test areas with comparatively higher household incomes. Beacon Hill / Rothwell remains a backup option.
Please note that this recommendation identifies where to test advertising and not necessarily where sales are guaranteed.
217Ottawa census areas assessed
7candidate marketing territories
2recommended areas to test first
What the business needs to decide
The objective is straightforward: use a limited marketing budget where it has the most plausible opportunity to reach suitable homeowners, without making travel and scheduling unnecessarily difficult, especially for a new landscaping business without a huge budget.
As such, we compared areas on three practical considerations:
- Housing: Are there enough residential property types aligned with the services offered?
- Income context: Do local household-income characteristics support further investigation?
- Distance: Is the area reasonably accessible from the business’s operating region?
Decision requested from management: Confirm the services and job sizes being advertised (e.g., new patio installs, lift and relays, laneway extensions, etc.) select the first territory, and approve a fixed test budget before any advertising begins.
THE FINDINGS
Two promising areas, for different reasons
FIRST CHOICE
Alta Vista / Elmvale
Best fit for a nearby-housing-focused pilot.
- Largest accessibility-adjusted suitable-housing measure among the seven candidate territories.
- All five selected areas placed in Ottawa’s top 20 under our discussed screening model.
- Strong proximity to the business’s operating region.
STRONG ALTERNATIVE
Chapel Hill
Best fit for testing stronger household-income characteristics.
- Three of four selected areas placed in Ottawa’s top 20.
- Constituent areas had median household incomes between $124,000 and $147,000 in the 2021 Census.
- However, there are fewer nearby-housing opportunity than Alta Vista / Elmvale under the client’s distance preferences.
What this comparison means: Alta Vista / Elmvale scored higher on the total accessibility-adjusted housing measure (approximately 20% higher than Chapel Hill); Chapel Hill performed better on the typical combined housing-and-income index. We emphasize that these are screening measures, not counts of likely customers or estimates of contract values.
Where are the candidate territories?
The coloured areas represent seven proposed advertising territories, each formed by grouping neighbouring census tracts. Please note that territories shown are not precise customer locations or guaranteed advertising-platform targeting boundaries.
ALL SEVEN CANDIDATE TERRITORIES
How did the seven territories compare?
The table below shows the seven areas considered before selecting the recommended advertising pilot. The scores help compare options under management’s stated housing, income, and distance preferences.
How to read the results
The table compares seven proposed advertising territories. Each column describes a different aspect of their suitability for the business.
Candidate territory: A proposed marketing area formed by grouping neighbouring census tracts. These are not official neighbourhood or advertising-platform boundaries.
Areas: The number of census tracts (CTs) included in each territory. Census tracts are geographic areas defined by Statistics Canada.
Typical opportunity score: The median distance-adjusted opportunity score of the census tracts within each territory. This index combines housing suitability, household-income characteristics, and distance from the business. A higher score indicates a more favourable result under management’s preferences, but does not predict sales.
Accessible housing score: A weighted measure of suitable residential housing after accounting for distance from the business. Higher values indicate a larger accessible housing opportunity under our model. These values are not actual counts of potential customers.
Housing retained: The percentage of the original weighted housing score remaining after applying distance adjustments. For example, Alta Vista / Elmvale retains 92.6%, meaning its housing score is reduced by only 7.4% under the distance policy. This does not mean 92.6% of homes are physically accessible.
Review flags: The number of census tracts identified for additional geographic review. Some smaller Census areas cross distance-band boundaries, creating uncertainty about how much housing falls within each distance category. A flag does not mean the result is incorrect; it indicates that the geographic assumptions deserve closer examination.
What does this mean for management?
Alta Vista / Elmvale offers the largest accessibility-adjusted suitable-housing opportunity among the seven territories.
Chapel Hill has the highest typical opportunity score, reflecting a strong combination of housing suitability, household-income characteristics, and accessibility.
Portobello / Fallingbrook, despite having considerable suitable housing, retains only 66.4% of its original housing score after the distance adjustment. This makes it less attractive under the business’s current proximity preferences.
Our recommendation remains unchanged: Begin with a controlled advertising pilot in Alta Vista / Elmvale, keeping Chapel Hill as the strongest alternative.
Important: These results are comparative screening measures, not predictions of enquiries, customers, or revenue. The opportunity scores reflect management-selected preferences rather than statistically estimated customer demand. Geographic review flags and sensitivity ranges are not statistical confidence intervals.
FROM RECOMMENDATION TO ACTION
A practical 30-day pilot
The next step is to test real enquiries, not add more complexity to the Census-based ranking.
| When | What management does | What it answers |
|---|---|---|
| Days 1–5 | Confirm target services and minimum worthwhile job size. Check available location-targeting options, set a spending cap and prepare a way to log enquiries. | Is the campaign practical to launch? |
| Days 6–26 | Advertise in one approved territory. Record enquiries and whether each fits the desired work, location, and budget. | Are we attracting suitable prospects? |
| Days 27–30 | Review enquiries, quotations, signed work, acquisition costs and driving/scheduling fit. | Should we continue, revise, or test Chapel Hill? |
How to judge the pilot
| Measure | The question for the owner |
|---|---|
| Qualified enquiries | Are the enquiries for the types of projects we actually want? |
| Advertising cost per qualified enquiry | How much did it cost to attract each suitable prospect? |
| Quotes and signed projects | Did interest turn into genuine business opportunities? |
| Travel and job profitability | Would these projects be practical and worthwhile to deliver? |
Simple review rule: Continue or expand only if the enquiries are sufficiently relevant and the likely economics make sense. If not, improve the campaign or test Chapel Hill.
Given the limited scale of the initial pilot, results should be treated as exploratory rather than statistically conclusive. If management wishes to evaluate alternative advertising strategies more rigorously, a follow-up experiment may be proposed as a separately budgeted engagement, subject to sufficient data and an appropriate experimental design.
What to keep in mind
The analysis uses 2021 data, and local markets may have changed. Housing and income are indicators of possible opportunity, not evidence that a household will buy. Straight-line distance differs from driving time, and advertising platforms may not target these exact geographic boundaries. The pilot is how we begin to learn about actual customer response.
Management next step: Confirm the initial service offering, the advertising budget and the geographic targeting setup, then launch a controlled trial in Alta Vista / Elmvale.